While crude prices trended lower overall, diesel and gasoline cracks surged to record levels, pulling up refinery margins and end-user prices. During April, crude and product markets saw diverging trends. Global refinery maintenance and capacity constraints are exacerbating dislocations caused by Russia’s war in Ukraine. Following a supply decline of nearly 1 mb/d in April, losses could expand to around 3 mb/d during the second half of the year. But now major trading houses are winding down deals ahead of a 15 May deadline to halt all transactions with state-controlled Rosneft, Gazprom Neft and Transneft. Brent last traded at $ 105/bbl and WTI $102/bbl.ĭespite mounting international pressure and falling oil production, Russian exports have so far held up by and large. Amid the widening supply and demand uncertainties, oil market volatility remains rife, but prices are trading in a lower and narrower $10/bbl range above $100/bbl. Even so, steadily rising output elsewhere, coupled with slower demand growth, especially in China, is expected to fend off an acute supply deficit in the near term. If agreed, the new embargoes would accelerate the reorientation of trade flows that is already underway and will force Russian oil companies to shut in more wells.
#OIL PRODUCTION BY COUNTRY 2022 FULL#
Russia’s isolation following its invasion of Ukraine is deepening as the EU and G7 contemplate tougher sanctions that include a full phase out of oil imports from the country. High crude prices and exceptional product cracks are supporting strong inflation trends.
Rapid early-May advances on the sixth round of EU sanctions for Russia drove renewed price tensions. ICE Brent last traded around $105/bbl and WTI $102/bbl. Crude prices fell in April to trade in a narrow $10/bbl range above $100/bbl.Preliminary data for April show OECD industry inventories increased by 5.3 mb. OECD industry stocks rose by 3 mb to 2 626 mb, but remained 299 mb below the five-year average. In the OECD, the release of 24.7 mb of government stocks during March halted the precipitous decline in industry inventories. Global observed oil inventories declined by a further 45 mb during March and are now a total 1.2 billion barrels lower since June 2020.Between now and August, runs are forecast to ramp up by 4.7 mb/d, but the tightness in product markets is expected to continue based on our current oil demand outlook. Throughputs in April fell 1.4 mb/d to 78 mb/d, the lowest since May 2021, largely driven by China. Global refinery margins have surged to extraordinarily high levels due to depleted product inventories and constrained refinery activity.Excluding Russia, output from the rest of the world is set to rise by 3.1 mb/d from May through December. Over time, steadily rising volumes from Middle East OPEC+ and the US along with a slowdown in demand growth is expected to fend off an acute supply deficit amid a worsening Russian supply disruption. Russia shut in nearly 1 mb/d in April, driving down world oil supply by 710 kb/d to 98.1 mb/d.For 2022, demand is expected to increase by 1.8 mb/d on average to 99.4 mb/d. As summer driving escalates and jet fuel continues to recover, world oil demand is set to rise by 3.6 mb/d from April to August. World oil demand growth is forecast to slow to 1.9 mb/d in 2Q22 from 4.4 mb/d in 1Q22 and is now projected to ease to 490 kb/d on average in the second half of the year on a more tempered economic expansion and higher prices.
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